Rainfall and Risk Management

Plus: Chels on "Anticipate Us With Your Grace"

Jul 05, 2026

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“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.”
- John F. Kennedy (1917 - 1963)

We couldn’t agree more 👌

THE CAT’S LAIR ☠️

Rainfall and Risk Management

White and black dice on blue textile by Markus Winkler on Unsplash (https://unsplash.com/@markuswinkler)

I love having a view of my surroundings. The sight of sunlight, clouds, birds, and the natural environment fills me with joy. It has been this way forever. When I was a wee kitten, rainy days used to leave me feeling sad and depressed. I remember one particularly brutal rainy season when my mother travelled. I missed her so much, it was unbearable. The weather certainly did not help matters. No sunlight to make me smile. No birds to sing to me. As an adult, wherever I have lived, my study desk has always been by the window so I can have a view of nature. Every day is a good day as a window desk user, until the moment a heavy rain catches you off guard. In April of last year, I experienced such a moment and almost paid a steep price. It taught me a serious lesson about risk and risk management.

The fateful day was a Sunday. I was supposed to be heading out to Church. I performed all my chores as usual, but I spent a little too much time on them. After a quick glance at the clock, I realised that I was running out of time. So I started rushing to finish. I brushed my hair, got dressed and headed to the door. As my hand touched the door handle, I looked back to see if there was any hint of rain. Everywhere was perfectly sunny. Usually, I would close my windows before leaving. But I felt it was unnecessary since the weather was sunny. Plus, it was April, a month not known for heavy rainfall in Lagos. An inner voice told me to just close the windows since anything could happen. I completely ignored it. This is something that could have taken me less than a minute to do. But I was confident and in a hurry - a deadly mix.

The Church is within walking distance of my house. It literally takes about six minutes at an average walking pace. I got there in time. But this is when my ordeal began. My mind kept flashing to my open windows. “What if rain actually starts falling?” The thing is, even if rain starts falling, it does not automatically enter through my windows. The wind needs to be blowing in the right direction for this to happen. I estimate that out of every 100 rainfalls, about 30 actually blow in the direction of my bedroom. A 30% chance, it was April, plus it was still sunny outside, what could go wrong?

Within 30 minutes of this thought, the weather outside began morphing. It went from sunny to cloudy very quickly. Suddenly, I was uneasy. Then the rain started. At this point, I was panicking on the inside. The thing is, my desk and its surroundings house my monitor, my desktop computer, and a UPS. These gadgets would set me back quite a bit if I were to replace them. Fortunately for me, however, the rain was blowing in a direction that was not facing my window. It also did not last long. It was a mere drizzle. I was very lucky that day. However, I learnt a serious lesson about risk management. It is always an inconvenience until the worst happens. Since that day, I have never left my house without closing my windows. Some days it rains when I leave. Some days it does not. But I know now that it is never a waste of effort to take the time to do the right thing.

Looking back now, two things conspired to prevent me from shutting my windows. The first is overconfidence. The second is impatience. My personal estimate of the weather conditions led me to become overconfident in my forecasts. If I had simply checked the weather forecast on my phone, I would have found out that cloudy weather was imminent. This would have spurred me to act to protect myself. Impatience also hampered me. If I were not rushing, I would have just shut the windows anyway. If I were not also rushing, I would have checked the weather forecast. I might have thought deeper about whether leaving the windows open was a good idea.

In the financial world, overconfidence and impatience combine to form a dangerous cocktail that has wrecked millions of investors.

Coincidentally, at the time of this rainy day drama, I was mid-way through Howard Mark’s book, “The Most Important Thing Illuminated.” In it, he talks about risk management seeming like a stupid idea in bullish times. However, in bearish times, it is what saves people from getting absolutely destroyed. Going for an asset that might return just 2x in 5 years seems stupid when you can go for one that can return 2x in 1 year. It is only when disaster strikes and that risky asset goes to zero that you come to appreciate allocating just 5% of your portfolio to it. Meanwhile, in a bullish year, you might be annoyed you did not go all in on the risky stock, because if you did, you would have made a ton of money.

I think patience and humility are antidotes to risky behaviour. When you are not rushing to make all your money in a short space of time, it is easier not to fall for scams and get-rich-quick schemes. When you are humble and not married to a financial instrument, it is easier to see its shortcomings and adjust your risk accordingly. The heavy rain in my story is the disaster lying in wait for every investor. My windows are risk management tools. Sunny conditions represent a bullish market. Cloudy conditions represent a bearish market. Rain represents a potential financial disaster. And my gadgets are my assets. Never could I have imagined that a simple experience could make for a powerful learning opportunity.

Risk management is always an inconvenience, until it steps in to save you from ruin.

Interesting stuff:

Why don’t Burna Boy, Tyla and others have African tours?

This is the craziest movie I have ever watched (and probably ever will):

Eric’s Review: Roar (1981)

CHELS’ WORLD 🌍

Anticipate Us With Your Grace

Woman standing beside body of calm water by Jessica Favaro on Unsplash (https://unsplash.com/@jessicafavaro)

I joined the 3 o’clock Divine Mercy prayer today.

I am writing from my experience as a Catholic, but I wonder if this is true for anyone who prays.

Of all the societies in the Church, Divine Mercy has always had a special place in my heart. I have not even joined the one in my current parish yet, but that is not the point.

It started in university.

Almost every day at 3 p.m., I would slip into the chapel to pray the Divine Mercy Chaplet. Looking back now, I think that is where my love for this devotion began. More than that, it is a reminder that so much of my life has been held together by the mercy of God.

The point is that today, I prayed a prayer I have prayed countless times before.

Except today, it felt like I was hearing it for the first time.

One of the things I struggle with is that my mind wanders; a lot.

I am constantly thinking. About work that needs to be done. Work that is not done. How my life is not panning out the way I thought it would. What I thought this season of my life would look like, and what it actually looks like instead.

I am a very visual person. It is one of the reasons I love books so much. When I read, I do not just read the words. I can see them. Every scene plays out like a movie in my head. Better than a movie, actually, because it feels like I am there.

I think it is a gift.

But it also means I spend a lot of time in my head.

And sometimes, even when I am praying, my mind has quietly wandered somewhere else before I even realise it.

My priest once said that whenever you notice your mind has wandered, do not panic. Just gently pull it back. Do not beat yourself up about it. Just come back.

He also encouraged us to keep praying one simple prayer:

“God, help me love You more.”

Over the years, I have made it my own. And when I struggle to even want what God wants, I add another line:

“Help me be willing to be willing.”

So today, we were praying the 3 o’clock Divine Mercy prayer.

As usual, my mind wandered.

I caught myself and pulled it back. A few moments later, it wandered again. I pulled it back again.

Then we got to the final prayer.

O greatly merciful Jesus, infinite goodness, today all mankind calls out from the abyss of its misery to Your mercy, to Your compassion...

I closed my eyes.

I was not rushing anymore, not thinking about work, not about tomorrow. I was just there.

And for some reason, I was not just saying the words anymore.

I was praying them.

Then we got to this part:

Anticipate us with Your grace and keep on increasing Your mercy in us, that we may faithfully do Your holy will all through our life and at death’s hour. Let the omnipotence of Your mercy shield us from the darts of our salvation’s enemies, that we may with confidence, as Your children, await Your final coming, that day known to You alone.

And we expect to obtain everything promised us by Jesus in spite of all our wretchedness. For Jesus is our Hope. Through His merciful Heart, as through an open gate, we pass through to heaven.

I had heard those words before. I had prayed them before, countless times.

But today, they landed differently.

Anticipate us with Your grace.

Before I could even get to Him, His grace was already reaching for me.

Keep on increasing Your mercy in us.

I do not know why those words stayed with me. Maybe because they reminded me that God is not finished with me, that His mercy is still at work in me.

Sitting there with my eyes closed, I felt this quiet conviction that God is with me and for me. That I did not have to have everything figured out. That I could trust Him.

I am still sitting with those words.

Even now, as I write this, I find myself closing my eyes again and letting them settle in my heart.

I want to study them properly. I want to understand them more deeply. But even before I understand every line, I know what they awakened in me.

I have a feeling I am going to carry them into every prayer I pray from now on.

I do not think this means I will suddenly stop getting distracted when I pray.

I will probably still catch my mind wandering tomorrow.

I will probably still have to pull it back.

Again and again.

But today reminded me of something I had forgotten.

Sometimes, because we have prayed the same prayers for years, we become so used to saying them that we are mouthing the words without really praying them.

It was not because I had discovered a new prayer.

It was because an old prayer became new again.

For me, this is a reminder to go back to the basics.

When I pray the Our Father, not to rush through it because I already know it by heart, but to actually think about what I am saying.